In a bearish trend, like the one that we are going through now, it is common for traders and investors to try to bottom fish. This is a highly difficult task. It is also common knowledge that many who attempt to do so, end up catching falling knives instead of a cushy bottom when they don't manage their risk and exit well. Being able to identify the possible reversal points can provide insight to the possible entry points and for risk management in the event the anticipated reversal fails.
Reversal patterns generally indicate the possibility of the end of a current bearish trend/phase. What follows thereafter is the probability of an opposite movement. These are some of the common patterns we can look out for (thanks to tradingprice patterns):
1. Double bottom (or W)
A double bottom occurs within the context of an existing bearish trend. It starts when a stock reaches a low from which it sharply rebounds. The stock then hits a high from which it rolls over. The stock then falls back down to the previous low and rebounds for a second time, forming two equal lows. These lows are connected to form a horizontal support level. The resistance level is defined by the high formed after the initial rebound.
Double bottoms occur frequently within the context of bearish trends; therefore, it’s important to wait for confirmation before acting on a double bottom. Like 123 bottoms (see below) , double bottoms are ubiquitous. Many will form but ultimately fail over the course of a bearish trend. Anticipating confirmation is possible, but doing so requires acute risk management.
Double bottoms can form over very short periods and long periods of time.
A double bottom is confirmed once a stock breaks above the horizontal resistance level. Entry points can be taken upon the breakout or after waiting for a retest of previous resistance and then buying on the bounce. A double bottom is rejected once a stock breaks down below horizontal support.
Reversal patterns generally indicate the possibility of the end of a current bearish trend/phase. What follows thereafter is the probability of an opposite movement. These are some of the common patterns we can look out for (thanks to tradingprice patterns):
1. Double bottom (or W)
A double bottom occurs within the context of an existing bearish trend. It starts when a stock reaches a low from which it sharply rebounds. The stock then hits a high from which it rolls over. The stock then falls back down to the previous low and rebounds for a second time, forming two equal lows. These lows are connected to form a horizontal support level. The resistance level is defined by the high formed after the initial rebound.
Double bottoms occur frequently within the context of bearish trends; therefore, it’s important to wait for confirmation before acting on a double bottom. Like 123 bottoms (see below) , double bottoms are ubiquitous. Many will form but ultimately fail over the course of a bearish trend. Anticipating confirmation is possible, but doing so requires acute risk management.
Double bottoms can form over very short periods and long periods of time.
A double bottom is confirmed once a stock breaks above the horizontal resistance level. Entry points can be taken upon the breakout or after waiting for a retest of previous resistance and then buying on the bounce. A double bottom is rejected once a stock breaks down below horizontal support.
2. Triple bottom
A triple bottom occurs within the context of an existing bearish trend. It starts when a stock reaches a low from which it sharply rebounds. The stock then hits a high from which it rolls over. The stock falls back down to the previous low and rebounds for a second time, forming two equal lows. The stock then rebounds to its recent highs and rolls over once more. The pattern concludes after the stock falls to its lows and stops going down for a third time. These three lows are connected to form a horizontal support level. The resistance level is defined by the two highs formed after the rebound attempts.
Triple bottoms occur less frequently than double bottoms. But when triple bottoms do form, they provide very precise entry points and risk management levels. Triple bottoms can form over very short and long periods of time.
Triple bottoms can go on and become quadruple bottoms if the same horizontal support level is retested. The patterns can continue indefinitely, but the more often a support level is tested the weaker it becomes. Keep as much in mind when trading triple bottoms that don’t immediately reverse higher.
A triple bottom is confirmed once the stock breaks above the horizontal resistance level. Entry points can be taken upon the breakout or after waiting for a retest or previous resistance and then buying on the bounce. A triple bottom is rejected if the stock falls below horizontal support.
3. 123 bottom
The 123 bottom is the most common bullish reversal pattern. The requirements for the 123 bottom are rather common, causing the pattern to frequently appear in existing bearish trends. Many 123 bottoms reach the first two conditions, but never confirm. The 123 bottom, therefore, can be somewhat deceiving. That’s why it’s imperative that the pattern confirms before placing trades.
The 123 bottom starts when a stock sharply reverses higher after an extended bearish trend. This sharp rebound is the first requirement of the pattern, or part 1. The second requirement is for the stock to halt its rally attempt at short-term resistance, which is part 2 of the pattern. Part 3 of the pattern forms when the stock stages another sharp rebound, but from a relatively higher level than in part 1. The 123 bottom confirms when the stock breaks above short-term resistance as defined in part 2.
A basic definition of a bearish trend is lower lows. A basic definition of a bullish trend is higher lows. The 123 bottom seeks to identify when a pattern of lower lows ends and a new pattern of higher lows begins.
Another way to think of a 123 bottom is as a very short-term cup and handle, only the 123 bottom occurs at the end of a bearish trend.
The 123 bottom occurs in most bearish trends, but it rarely confirms. When it does confirm, it’s best to take a very short-term approach to trading the 123 bottom. Taking profits quickly is generally a good idea after entering a 123 bottom.
A 123 bottom is confirmed once the stock breaks above the horizontal resistance level as defined in part 2 of the definition. An entry can be taken as soon as the stock crosses its short-term resistance. This resistance will often act as support in the days following a breakout.
A 123 bottom is rejected if the stock fails to break above resistance or falls below the relative low traced in part 3. A drop below the relative low in part 3 reveals a very short-term pattern of lower lows, which is a bearish indication.
Note : it would be prudent to observe that your usual indicators also support the reversal patterns.
(the charts featured above were extracted from stockcharts and thereafter marked upon to illustrate the reversal patterns)
A triple bottom occurs within the context of an existing bearish trend. It starts when a stock reaches a low from which it sharply rebounds. The stock then hits a high from which it rolls over. The stock falls back down to the previous low and rebounds for a second time, forming two equal lows. The stock then rebounds to its recent highs and rolls over once more. The pattern concludes after the stock falls to its lows and stops going down for a third time. These three lows are connected to form a horizontal support level. The resistance level is defined by the two highs formed after the rebound attempts.
Triple bottoms occur less frequently than double bottoms. But when triple bottoms do form, they provide very precise entry points and risk management levels. Triple bottoms can form over very short and long periods of time.
Triple bottoms can go on and become quadruple bottoms if the same horizontal support level is retested. The patterns can continue indefinitely, but the more often a support level is tested the weaker it becomes. Keep as much in mind when trading triple bottoms that don’t immediately reverse higher.
A triple bottom is confirmed once the stock breaks above the horizontal resistance level. Entry points can be taken upon the breakout or after waiting for a retest or previous resistance and then buying on the bounce. A triple bottom is rejected if the stock falls below horizontal support.
3. 123 bottom
The 123 bottom is the most common bullish reversal pattern. The requirements for the 123 bottom are rather common, causing the pattern to frequently appear in existing bearish trends. Many 123 bottoms reach the first two conditions, but never confirm. The 123 bottom, therefore, can be somewhat deceiving. That’s why it’s imperative that the pattern confirms before placing trades.
The 123 bottom starts when a stock sharply reverses higher after an extended bearish trend. This sharp rebound is the first requirement of the pattern, or part 1. The second requirement is for the stock to halt its rally attempt at short-term resistance, which is part 2 of the pattern. Part 3 of the pattern forms when the stock stages another sharp rebound, but from a relatively higher level than in part 1. The 123 bottom confirms when the stock breaks above short-term resistance as defined in part 2.
A basic definition of a bearish trend is lower lows. A basic definition of a bullish trend is higher lows. The 123 bottom seeks to identify when a pattern of lower lows ends and a new pattern of higher lows begins.
Another way to think of a 123 bottom is as a very short-term cup and handle, only the 123 bottom occurs at the end of a bearish trend.
The 123 bottom occurs in most bearish trends, but it rarely confirms. When it does confirm, it’s best to take a very short-term approach to trading the 123 bottom. Taking profits quickly is generally a good idea after entering a 123 bottom.
A 123 bottom is confirmed once the stock breaks above the horizontal resistance level as defined in part 2 of the definition. An entry can be taken as soon as the stock crosses its short-term resistance. This resistance will often act as support in the days following a breakout.
A 123 bottom is rejected if the stock fails to break above resistance or falls below the relative low traced in part 3. A drop below the relative low in part 3 reveals a very short-term pattern of lower lows, which is a bearish indication.
Note : it would be prudent to observe that your usual indicators also support the reversal patterns.
(the charts featured above were extracted from stockcharts and thereafter marked upon to illustrate the reversal patterns)
No comments:
Post a Comment